I’m not making any predictions about what happens tomorrow. It’s part superstition, part cynicism, and part that I just don’t want to set myself up for a broken heart.
Nonetheless, others are more … um … I don’t know … bold? … than I. Glenn Grenwald, for instance:
My predictions/views of tomorrow:
Popular vote: Obama – 51.6%; McCain – 47.1%; Nader/Barr/others: 1.3%
Electoral votes: Obama – 321-217 (Kerry states + CO, NM, IA, VA, NC, OH)
States I’m mostly likely to be wrong about: (1) FL; (2) NC; (3) OH; (4) MT; (5) MO
Senate: Dems – 59; GOP – 41 (including Lieberman and Sanders as Dems)
Senate Dem. pick-ups: VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH, GA
States I’m mostly likely to be wrong about: (1) GA; (2) MN; (3) KY
House Dem. pick-up: +31
Incumbent losses that would produce the greatest pleasure (among those with a reasonable prospect to lose): (1) Saxby Chambliss; (2) Michelle Bachmann; (3) Marilyn Musgrave; (4) Robin Hayes; (5) Elizabeth Dole; (6) Dave Reichert
Democrats whose defeat would prompt indifference (or even joy): (1) Chris Carney; (2) Tim Mahoney; (3) Nick Lampson; (4) Jim Marshall; (5) Jack Murtha.
Five terms I hope never to hear again for the rest of my existence: (1) Joe the Plumber; (2) Hockey Mom; (3) game-changer; (4) tightening; (5) Sarahcuda.
Three dumbest pieces of already-solidified conventional wisdom among the Right and the media (if Obama wins): (1) The Liberal Media was unfair to McCain; (2) Obama better resist his “liberal impulses” and govern from the center unless he wants to spawn disaster; (3) The Pelosi/Reid Congress is going to pressure Obama to move to the Left.
I will say a few things about what I hope for.
- A minimum ten-point electoral margin for Obama. (I’d prefer fifteen, but that seems a bit unreasonable, all things considered.)
- 300 electoral votes for Obama. (RealClearPolitics presently suggests a 338-200 outcome if the polling is accurate.)
- Sixty seats in the Senate for the Democrats.
- A modest increase in the Democratic House majority. (Presently, they have 233 seats, or 53.5% of the chamber. I do think Greenwald’s prediction of a 31 seat gain is a bit ambitious. 28 seats will give the Democrats 60% of the House, an insignificant number in terms of veto overrides, but if Obama wins, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.)
- That this election could somehow be significant of a shift in voter attitudes toward substance over flash, foresight over immediate and myopic gratification, and the rise of wisdom to challenge the emotional flurries that tend to dominate our politics.
Oh, and milk and cookies for everyone. (Yes, soy for those who are lactose intolerant, and we can figure out how to accommodate other specific needs.)
All in all, it’s not too much to ask, is it?